2026年7月15日，丹麦哥本哈根大学Gyula Mate Kovács团队在《自然》杂志发表论文，报道了高度破碎化的欧洲湿地及其不均衡的恢复需求。

欧洲湿地储存着大量的碳，但数个世纪的土地利用已侵蚀了其碳储量和生物多样性。欧盟（EU）自然恢复法（NRL）要求到2030年至少恢复30%的“状况不佳”的湿地生态系统，然而关于湿地类型和状况的空间一致性信息仍然匮乏。

利用10米分辨率卫星影像和机器学习，研究组绘制了38个欧洲国家六种半自然开阔湿地类型及土地利用扰动图。湿地高度破碎化，估计有27%–33%的湿地面积位于地图定义的<25公顷的斑块中，7%–11%位于<1公顷的斑块中，这使得许多较小斑块被较粗分辨率产品遗漏。研究组估计，人类活动影响了20.4 ± 3.4%的湿地面积（95%置信区间），其中内陆湿地类型受影响最大，相对于未受干扰的基线，可能有高达5 Gt CO2当量的土壤碳损失。

将受干扰面积转化为NRL恢复目标，研究组发现若干国家的承诺与我们2030年的估算大致相符，而其他国家尽管其地图识别出大量候选区域，却缺乏量化的承诺。所生成的标准化、高分辨率产品提供了针对NRL量身定制的欧盟范围基线，并为将卫星制图与恢复目标相衔接提供了可复制的模板，支持进展跟踪。

附：英文原文

Title: Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs

Author: Kovcs, Gyula Mate, Tong, Xiaoye, Gominski, Dimitri, Oehmcke, Stefan, Horion, Stphanie, Abel, Christin, Ivits, Eva, Schurgers, Guy, Elberling, Bo, Prishchepov, Alexander, van der Linden, Sebastian, Page, Susan, Barthelmes, Alexandra, Tanneberger, Franziska, Fensholt, Rasmus

Issue&Volume: 2026-07-15

Abstract: European wetlands store large carbon reserves1, but centuries of land use have eroded carbon stocks and biodiversity2. The European Union (EU) Nature Restoration Law (NRL)3 requires at least 30% of wetland ecosystems not in ‘good condition’ to be restored by 2030, yet spatially consistent information on wetland types and condition remains scarce. Using 10-m satellite imagery and machine learning, we map six seminatural open wetland types and land-use disturbance across 38 European countries. Wetlands are highly fragmented, with an estimated 27–33% of wetland area occurring in map-defined patches <25ha and 7–11% in patches <1ha, exposing many small sites missed by coarser products. We estimate that human activities affect 20.4±3.4% of wetland areas (95% confidence interval), with inland wetland types most affected, and up to 5GtCO2-eq of soil carbon potentially lost relative to an undisturbed baseline. Translating disturbed area into NRL restoration targets, we find that several countries’ pledges are broadly consistent with our 2030 estimates, whereas others lack quantified commitments despite substantial candidate areas identified by our maps. The resulting standardized, high-resolution products provide an EU-wide baseline tailored to the NRL and a reproducible template for linking satellite mapping to restoration targets, supporting progress tracking.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10760-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10760-9

期刊信息

Nature：《自然》，创刊于1869年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团，最新IF：69.504

官方网址：http://www.nature.com/

投稿链接：http://www.nature.com/authors/submit_manuscript.html