近日，中山大学深圳校区马亮团队解释了保护全球陆生脊椎动物物种免受未来海平面上升的影响。2026年10月22日出版的《科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

海平面上升（SLR）威胁陆地生物多样性，但其时空影响和物种特异性影响仍不清楚。

研究组将五种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下的相对SLR预估与34,120种陆生脊椎动物的栖息地面积（AOH）图相结合，预测暴露于SLR的物种将从2050年的至多13,680种增加到2100年的15,324种，其中包括57%–63%的鸟类、47%–52%的哺乳动物、28%–36%的爬行动物和20%–24%的两栖动物。

在东南亚，内陆淹没区物种丰富度高。在SSP5-8.5下，面临超过10%栖息地淹没的物种从2050年的18种激增至2100年的109种，其中爬行动物和已受威胁物种占比偏高。保护SLR避难所——即暴露物种的非淹没栖息地——至关重要，然而超过96%的避难所位于保护区之外，这意味着需要尽早采取国际行动。

附：英文原文

Title: Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea level rise

Author: Zhong-Wen Jiang, Heng-Bin Xiao, Jeffrey O. Hanson, Yiwen Zeng, David S. Wilcove, Mark Schuerch, Matthew L. Kirwan, Qin-Fang Yan, Yaping Chen, Liang Ma

Issue&Volume: 2026-10-22

Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) threatens terrestrial biodiversity, yet its spatiotemporal and species-specific impacts remain unclear. Integrating relative SLR projections across five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with area of habitat (AOH) maps for 34,120 terrestrial vertebrate species, we project that species exposed to SLR will increase from up to 13,680 in 2050 to 15,324 by 2100, including 57 to 63% of birds, 47 to 52% of mammals, 28 to 36% of reptiles, and 20 to 24% of amphibians. In Southeast Asia, inland inundation areas support high richness. Under SSP5-8.5, species facing >10% habitat inundation surge from 18 in 2050 to 109 by 2100, with reptiles and already threatened species overrepresented. Safeguarding SLR refugia—the noninundated habitats for exposed species—is critical, yet more than 96% lie outside protected areas, which means that early international action is required.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aed5772

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed5772